The End of Putin

Human civilization is caught in a state of suspended animation of sorts, waiting in restless anticipation as the Russian invasion of Ukraine moves through its evil and deadly course. No one knows how it will end, or even what will happen next. Like most people, I suspect, I watched and listened with dread as the horrific news coming from Ukraine got worse every day. Without a framework for thinking about it, the invasion seemed surreal, totally mad, mind-boggling.

After much pondering I finally came up with an overview of the crisis. The PBS program Frontline last night made it clear. Vladimir Putin is a madman. A megalomaniac. He follows in a long line of dictators who become obsessed, paranoid, brutal, isolated and ultimately overstepping their limits. Putin is holding the world at bay with the subtle, and not-so-subtle threat of nuclear weapons. If he uses nuclear weapons it would be an escalation that would likely lead to World War III and nuclear conflagration that could be the end of the human species, to say nothing of most other species.

In order to put the Putin threat in a workable context there are four historical events that we can consider. The first is the assassination of communist Russian dictator Joseph Stalin in 1953. He also was a madman, and the "high command," or whatever his inner circle was called, "Central Committee," collectively realized that he was an existential threat to the future of the Soviet Union, and possibly the entire planet.

The next event to consider is the Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962, where then President Kennedy had a faceoff with First Secretary of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union Nikita Khrushchev over the presence of Soviet nuclear missiles in Cuba. The showdown with Khrushchev was touted as an example of "brinksmanship" – a policy aimed at pushing a dangerous situation to the limit so that an opponent will concede (American Heritage Dictionary). Khrushchev backed off, Kennedy gave him a face-saving concession, and the crisis ended peacefully.

The third factor to keep in mind is the failed attempt at dictatorship by Donald Trump in the United States. Trump was no more than a dumb, narcissistic grifter, and had no talent whatsoever in governance – for good or evil. All he had was bluster, bullying and corruption. As Putin advanced his plans for an empire of himself he helped Trump win the U.S. presidency in 2016, and did what he could in 2020 to get Trump "reelected." It didn’t work, and Putin not only lost a kompromated ally, but he gained a surprisingly adept enemy in Joe Biden. Enter brinksmanship 2022.

Then there is the fourth factor, the strength, resilience and determination of the people of Ukraine, personified in its amazing and courageous president Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Few thought a former comedian would show the resolve, eloquence and charisma that Zelenskyy has displayed on a daily basis since the day this terrible invasion began.

With all these factors in mind I think it is safe to say that Putin’s dream of self-empire will end fairly soon. Most people and governments are lining up against him. His threat of nuclear holocaust, though real, likely has his generals and other lackeys scared out of their wits. Like Trump lackeys, they have limits in how far they are willing to go in service to his psychotic dream. The reality of nuclear conflagration is likely to cause some second-guessing, some soul-searching, some doubt and some exploration of alternatives. They only need look back in their nation’s history, a mere 69 years. I am old enough to remember the day Stalin met his denouement. I was not quite 8 years old. It was the most dramatic and critical news event of my youth. Until the Cuban Missile Crisis, that is. I was 17 then. 

So we will have to see if one madman can start a nuclear war all by himself, or if cooler heads will, er, prevail. Putin has been such a mass murderer, a poisoner, a torturer, a bomber, a terrorist and a bullying despot for so long that he may have finally worn out his welcome on this planet. The survival of the human species hangs in the balance, hostage to the whims of one angry sociopath. One pathetic guy.

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There are other factors. Climate change and the unsustainability of the planet-destroying infinite growth economic system make any dream of empire a cosmic joke, but these are considerations that we will all be dealing with, Putin or no Putin. They make his dream even more futile.

Here's a song. The Doors. Here's a song for Putin's lackeys. It works for Trump's lackeys too. Here's a song for Putin. This too. A song for Putin's empire. Trump followers, and, as it turns out, followers of Hungarian "strongman" Viktor Mihály Orbán, display the intellectual level that dictators depend on. This song is aspirational for Russia's future. Maybe Russia needs a female president. A worthy replacement for Putin, Masha Alyokhina (Мария Алёхина, https://twitter.com/all_mary?lang=en), came to Madison in 2016. Unfortunately, Putin keeps having her arrested.

Mikhail Kasyanov, Putin's former prime minister, had this to say about the prospects for removing his former crony. Others are raising the question of the Putin era coming to an end. Here's one. Here's another. You can read this version for free. It is becoming a chorus.

Atmospheric scientist Brian Toon explains what will happen in a nuclear war.

Ukraine's president raised his concern about Russia using nuclear weapons. Putin, a man without moral scruple, would do it in a heartbeat, but that would mean the fate of the entire planet would be up to one man. It was inevitable that it would come to this. If one man can destroy all life on this planet, then it has no meaning anyway. I think life does have meaning. Ergo, Putin's days are numbered. We can't say how, or when, but I trust it will be soon.

April 19 Update: Russian chess master Garry Kasparov is predicting a "palace coup" may oust Putin. Momentum is growing. 

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If you are protesting at a Russian embassy anywhere on the planet, I have a couple of sign ideas: "DEFECT NOW!" "CITIZENSHIP FOR SECRETS!" "IT'S BETTER HERE!" "AVOID THE GULAG!" "EMIGRATION OR WAR CRIMES TRIALS!" 

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Update, April 23: Here are some musings about Putin's future and related topics.

For a Ukrainian perspective on the war, click here.